Magnetohydrodynamic kink waves naturally form as a consequence of perturbations to a structured medium, for example, transverse oscillations of coronal loops. Linear theory has provided many insights into the evolution of linear oscillations, and results from these models are often applied to infer information about the solar corona from observed wave periods and damping times. However, simulations show that nonlinear kink waves can host the Kelvin–Helmholtz instability (KHI), which subsequently creates turbulence in the loop, dynamics that are beyond linear models. In this paper we investigate the evolution of KHI-induced turbulence on the surface of a flux tube where a nonlinear fundamental kink mode has been excited. We control our numerical experiment so that we induce the KHI without exciting resonant absorption. We find two stages in the KHI turbulence dynamics. In the first stage, we show that the classic model of a KHI turbulent layer growing at ∝t is applicable. We adapt this model to make accurate predictions of the damping of the oscillation and turbulent heating as a consequence of the KHI dynamics. In the second stage, the now dominant turbulent motions are undergoing decay. We find that the classic model of energy decay proportional to t ‑2 approximately holds and provides an accurate prediction of the heating in this phase. Our results show that we can develop simple models for the turbulent evolution of a nonlinear kink wave, but the damping profiles produced are distinct from those of linear theory that are commonly used to confront theory and observations.