Bibcode
DOI
Kidger, Mark R.
Bibliographical reference
The Astronomical Journal, Volume 119, Issue 5, pp. 2053-2059.
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5
2000
Citations
32
Refereed citations
28
Description
The case of the possible 11 yr periodicity in the historical light curve
of OJ 287 over a century of observations is examined critically largely
independently of possible models that may explain it. Although it is
evident that there is at least a quasiperiodicity in the light curve
because of the regular spacing of the nine observed outbursts, attempts
to estimate an exact period have been unconvincing. We show that the
principal reason is that the data sampling is too uneven to permit
definitive conclusions to be obtained from standard data analysis
methods such as Fourier transform analysis. However, it is also shown
that this is at least in part because the five most recent light-curve
events do not refer to the same outburst in the light curve as the
previous ones. A simple statistical method is defined to calculate a
best period from both the primary and secondary outbursts. The result is
a best mean period of 11.844 yr, although there is some evidence that
the period for the primary maxima may be significantly longer than this
value. While the periodic model of the light curve has so far
demonstrated considerable predictive power, final judgement should be
reserved until after this predicted maximum in 2006.