Bibcode
Laken, B. A.; Čalogović, J.
Bibliographical reference
Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate, Volume 3, id.A29, 13 pp.
Advertised on:
9
2013
Citations
40
Refereed citations
38
Description
The composite (superposed epoch) analysis technique has been frequently
employed to examine a hypothesized link between solar activity and the
Earth's atmosphere, often through an investigation of Forbush decrease
(Fd) events (sudden high-magnitude decreases in the flux cosmic rays
impinging on the upper-atmosphere lasting up to several days). This
technique is useful for isolating low-amplitude signals within data
where background variability would otherwise obscure detection. The
application of composite analyses to investigate the possible impacts of
Fd events involves a statistical examination of time-dependent
atmospheric responses to Fds often from aerosol and/or cloud datasets.
Despite the publication of numerous results within this field, clear
conclusions have yet to be drawn and much ambiguity and disagreement
still remain. In this paper, we argue that the conflicting findings of
composite studies within this field relate to methodological differences
in the manner in which the composites have been constructed and
analyzed. Working from an example, we show how a composite may be
objectively constructed to maximize signal detection, robustly identify
statistical significance, and quantify the lower-limit uncertainty
related to hypothesis testing. Additionally, we also demonstrate how a
seemingly significant false positive may be obtained from
non-significant data by minor alterations to methodological approaches.
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