Bibcode
Pérez-Jordán, G; Castro-Almazán, J. A.; Muñoz-Tuñón, C.
Bibliographical reference
Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society, Volume 477, Issue 4, p.5477-5485
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7
2018
Citations
5
Refereed citations
5
Description
We validate the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model for
precipitable water vapour (PWV) forecasting as a fully operational tool
for optimizing astronomical infrared observations at Roque de los
Muchachos Observatory (ORM). For the model validation, we used
GNSS-based (Global Navigation Satellite System) data from the PWV
monitor located at the ORM. We have run WRF every 24 h for near two
months, with a horizon of 48 h (hourly forecasts), from 2016 January 11
to March 04. These runs represent 1296 hourly forecast points. The
validation is carried out using different approaches: performance as a
function of the forecast range, time horizon accuracy, performance as a
function of the PWV value, and performance of the operational WRF time
series with 24- and 48-h horizons. Excellent agreement was found between
the model forecasts and observations, with R = 0.951 and 0.904 for the
24- and 48-h forecast time series, respectively. The 48-h forecast was
further improved by correcting a time lag of 2 h found in the
predictions. The final errors, taking into account all the uncertainties
involved, are 1.75 mm for the 24-h forecasts and 1.99 mm for 48 h. We
found linear trends in both the correlation and root-mean-square error
of the residuals (measurements - forecasts) as a function of the
forecast range within the horizons analysed (up to 48 h). In summary,
the WRF performance is excellent and accurate, thus allowing it to be
implemented as an operational tool at the ORM.
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Casiana
Muñoz Tuñón